Nasdaq 100 Surges as Markets Shrug Off Trade War Concerns
Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil,and Canadian dollar futures
Nasdaq 100, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil, Canadian dollar futures
A remarkable turnaround by U.S. equity markets is reaching its crescendo today, with all four U.S. equity indexes closing the gap from last week’s close. Tough tariff talk from President Donald Trump is reverberating through financial markets otherwise, with all major currencies down vs. the U.S. dollar while precious metals push to fresh yearly (or record, in gold’s case) highs. The dust is settling on what feels like the most important week in, well, weeks. We’ve seen developments from DeepSeek to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to tech earnings, plus both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are closer to all-time highs than their weekly lows.
Symbol: Equities
Daily Change
/ESH5
+0.58%
/NQH5
+1.27%
/RTYH5
-0.06%
/YMH5
+0.01%
Equity markets rose today and U.S. indexes recovered most of their weekly losses that were sparked by concern over China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence model. Apple (AAPL) guided technology stocks higher after the iPhone maker reported earnings yesterday afternoon that mostly impressed investors. The Nvidia (NVDA) CEO will meet with President Trump, which comes amid a probe into the Chinese startup to investigate whether the company circumvented U.S. chip restrictions. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) fell in early trading after reporting a disappointing set of results.
Strategy: (42DTE, ATM)
Strikes
POP
Max Profit
Max Loss
Iron Condor
Long 20500 p
Short 20750 p
Short 23250 c
Long 23500 c
62%
+1300
-3700
Short Strangle
Short 20750 p
Short 23250 c
70%
+5420
x
Short Put Vertical
Long 20500 p
Short 20750 p
81%
+765
-4235
Symbol: Bonds
Daily Change
/ZTH5
0%
/ZFH5
+0.01%
/ZNH5
+0.03%
/ZBH5
+0.08%
/UBH5
+0.08%
Bonds were mostly unchanged across the curve this morning, with the long end seeing a small amount of buying after this morning’s inflation report crossed the wires. The personal consumption expenditures index rose 0.3% from the previous month, putting the annual rate at 2.6% to meet economists’ expectations. The print shows there are still some concerns about the inflation outlook, but it wasn’t enough to spook the bond markets. Investors will likely remain focused on broader themes, such as U.S. trade measures.
Strategy (49DTE, ATM)
Strikes
POP
Max Profit
Max Loss
Iron Condor
Long 108 p
Short 110 p
Short 118 c
Long 120 c
61%
+562.50
-1437.50
Short Strangle
Short 110 p
Short 118 c
67%
+1187.50
x
Short Put Vertical
Long 108 p
Short 110 p
85%
+250
-1750
Symbol: Metals
Daily Change
/GCJ5
+0.55%
/SIH5
+0.61%
/HGH5
-0.49%
Gold prices benefited from the muted reaction in the bond market to this morning’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report. Meanwhile, concern surrounding U.S. trade policy continues to support safe-haven bids into precious metals, with gold futures (/GCJ5) rising about 0.5% in early trading.
Meanwhile, copper prices (/HGH5) traded lower because of the same concerns, with potential tariffs on China seen as a headwind to China’s economy—which is the largest consumer of the industrial metal.
Strategy (54DTE, ATM)
Strikes
POP
Max Profit
Max Loss
Iron Condor
Long 2685 p
Short 2700 p
Short 3020 c
Long 3035 c
61%
+460
-1040
Short Strangle
Short 2700 p
Short 3020 c
70%
+3720
x
Short Put Vertical
Long 2685 p
Short 2700 p
82%
+240
-1260
Symbol: Energy
Daily Change
/CLH5
-0.81%
/HOH5
-0.37%
/NGH5
-1.02%
/RBH5
-0.99%
Crude oil futures (/CLH5) extended losses today, putting the commodity on track for a second weekly loss. The U.S. will place tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which is pressuring oil prices. Canada and Mexico are among the largest exporters of energy products to the United States. However, the White House still hasn’t made clear whether the tariffs will target oil. Traders will have their attention on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Monday. The increased pressure from the new U.S. administration may force the cartel to roll back voluntary production cuts later this year and open new supply up to the global market.
Strategy (45DTE, ATM)
Strikes
POP
Max Profit
Max Loss
Iron Condor
Long 64 p
Short 66 p
Short 79 c
Long 81 c
61%
+540
-1460
Short Strangle
Short 66 p
Short 79 c
68%
+1710
x
Short Put Vertical
Long 64 p
Short 66 p
79%
+310
-1690
Symbol: FX
Daily Change
/6AH5
-0.29%
/6BH5
-0.52%
/6CH5
-0.71%
/6EH5
-0.64%
/6JH5
-0.36%
Trump tariffs against Canada and Mexico are making their presence felt in FX markets, as is the president’s declaration of a 100% tariff threat against the BRICS. While the U.S. dollar is comfortably higher across the board, the other North American currencies are suffering the most: the Canadian dollar (/6CH5) is down by nearly ¾ of a percent, while the Mexican peso (/6MH5) is down by more than 1.3%.
Strategy (63DTE, ATM)
Strikes
POP
Max Profit
Max Loss
Iron Condor
Long 0.66 p
Short 0.67 p
Short 0.71 c
Long 0.72 c
63%
+240
-760
Short Strangle
Short 0.67 p
Short 0.71 c
68%
+460
x
Short Put Vertical
Long 0.66 p
Short 0.67 p
91%
+100
-900
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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This article was originally published by a www.tastylive.com . Read the Original article here. .