Ranking NFL’s six* open head coaching jobs after Dallas Cowboys part with Mike McCarthy

It’s the middle of January, which means the NFL’s coaching carousel is likely already pushing the highest RPMs it will reach this year. Monday was a prime example as the New England Patriots introduced Mike Vrabel as their next HC while, halfway across the country, the Dallas Cowboys officially put out their “now hiring” placard when they and Mike McCarthy failed to reach a new agreement to keep him in North Texas following the expiration of his contract.

It seems unlikely more jobs will be vacated, however one never knows when a surprise resignation or retirement might crop up – perhaps when a successful young coach burns out … or maybe when an older, established one decides to call it a career after a Super Bowl three-peat. Who’s to say?

So while the list could certainly grow beyond six* openings, let’s assess the current ones from most attractive to least:

1. Chicago Bears

Quarterback situation

Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 draft and widely regarded as a generational prospect, is supposed to be this franchise’s savior. It didn’t go that way during his highly uneven rookie season, when he too often reverted to his bad college habits by consistently trying to force the issue on lost plays while absorbing a league-worst 68 sacks. Yet Williams also flashed the brilliance that landed him in this position and, while he made plenty of mistakes in terms of game management, he also set a rookie record by throwing 353 consecutive passes without an interception. Bottom line, his presence and potential will be quite an enticement for prospective coaches – Ben Johnson? – eyeing this job.

There’s also plenty to like about 24-year-old backup Tyson Bagent, but it would probably behoove the organization to bring in a veteran to tutor Williams and perhaps serve as a trusted sounding board for both youngsters.

Roster

There are plenty of good players here, notably WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, who was picked eight spots after Williams, RB D’Andre Swift and TE Cole Kmet – though their collective output was certainly depressed by the offense’s dysfunction in 2024. The O-line has room to improve, but it shouldn’t be inordinately blamed for Williams’ outlandish sack total, the rookie causing quite a bit of self-sabotage.

The defense regressed but appears set in key spots with CB Jaylon Johnson, LB Tremaine Edmunds and pass rusher Montez Sweat. All of them need to play better in 2025, and the front seven could use reinforcements.

WR Keenan Allen and G Teven Jenkins are the most notable free agents.

Salary cap

The team is projected to have more than $66 million to spend in free agency, per OverTheCap, which is presently among the seven highest bankrolls in the league. Talent acquisition hasn’t been an issue for GM Ryan Poles, though it obviously needs to coalesce better under the next coaching staff.

2025 NFL draft

Poles’ trade of the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft has one more dividend to pay as the Bears own Carolina’s second-rounder this year. That should mean Chicago picks four times among the top 72 selections, including 10th overall – and there’s definitely more work to do in order to build up the supporting cast around Williams.

Outlook

The prospect of working with Williams on a rookie contract – and with so many other quality pieces in place – should make this a highly desirable job. However a rabid fan base looking for something more than 1985 highlights and memories will expect near-instant results – which won’t be easy in the NFC North, which just sent its three other members into the postseason field. And while the roster is solid, whoever succeeds Matt Eberflus must also ensure there’s philosophical alignment with team president Kevin Warren and Poles given the good work that was done in 2024 was undermined by a lack of appropriate coaching infrastructure to properly develop a rookie quarterback.

Quarterback situation

Dak Prescott is the highest-paid passer in league history after signing a four-year, $240 million extension (with $231 million guaranteed) in September. That’s indicative both of his value to the team and fact he’s effectively tied to the organization financially for at least the next two seasons. He could also be in line for the Comeback Player of the Year Award in 13 months given his 2024 campaign was ruined at the halfway point by a hamstring injury. Still, he was the MVP runner-up a year ago and represents steadiness – and often excellent play – from a position that’s often in flux with teams searching for a head coach. It’s quite feasible that Prescott will own the Cowboys’ career records for passing yards and touchdowns by the end of the 2025 season.

On the backup front, both Cooper Rush and Trey Lance are ticketed for free agency, though Rush – he has won nine of 14 starts while filling in for Prescott since 2021 – is close to an ideal QB2, experienced and reliable but no threat to the starter.

Roster

As is befitting of “America’s Team,” it’s a star-studded group led by Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb and LB Micah Parsons, who are all at or near the top of their respective positional groups from a league-wide perspective. However, assuming Parsons signs his own extension this year, the trio will likely eat up a huge percentage of the salary cap at a time when much of the roster is in transition.

Rush, G Zack Martin, DE DeMarcus Lawrence, WR Brandin Cooks, RB Rico Dowdle and LB Eric Kendricks are among the notable players with expiring contracts. Promising young LB DeMarvion Overshown shredded his knee last month and will be a question mark in 2025.

And there will be a need to better support Prescott and Lamb, who can’t simply carry this offense at all times. Dallas needs answers at running, secondary receivers and on an O-line likely about to lose longtime linchpin Martin. LT Tyler Guyton, the team’s first-round pick in 2024, must improve in Year 2.

Salary cap

At present, the Cowboys have basically nothing to spend in free agency – not that owner Jerry Jones showed a willingness to loosen the purse strings to bring in notable names (or re-sign his key role players) last year. That will certainly change – extending Parsons would likely reduce the $21.3 million base salary he’s owed in 2025 – but roster construction is likely going to be a serious challenge beyond the team’s highly compensated superstars. OT Terence Steele and CB Trevon Diggs could be candidates for restructures.

2025 NFL draft

Dallas owns the 12th pick of the first round but doesn’t currently have a fourth-rounder.

Outlook

There’s a lot to love about this job, namely the presence of such good players at crucial positions. The NFC East is usually a division that’s in play, and Jones typically wants to make the expenditures needed in his ongoing bid to end what’s now nearly a three-decade Super Bowl drought. However the spotlight shines on a coach here like nowhere else, and the requirement to collaborate closely with Jones on football matters is a dynamic unique to the Cowboys – meaning this post truly demands a certain kind of personality.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback situation

Unlike numerous teams throughout the NFL, they have their guy in Trevor Lawrence – that certainty cemented by the five-year, $275 million extension he signed in June, tied for the second-largest contract in league history behind Prescott while linking him to the club through the 2030 season.

But there’s a flip side to that stability given Lawrence has yet to live up to his billing as the top pick of the 2021 draft, when he was hyped as a prospect bound to make an impact on par with John Elway or Peyton Manning. Not only has that not happened – Lawrence has been a Pro Bowler one time and taken the Jags to the playoffs once – but injuries have undercut his performance the past two seasons.

After his rookie year was squandered by Urban Meyer, Lawrence generally played better under Pederson. But the next coach must certainly find a way to truly unlock his potential. The backup situation will need to be addressed anew with Mac Jones headed for free agency.

Roster

Regardless of how one assesses Lawrence, there’s a nice nucleus here. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was a breakout star on a receiver corps that already boasted Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram. The defense is stocked with a first-rate pass rusher in Josh Hines-Allen and promising youngsters like Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and Tyson Campbell. Work needs to be done in the trenches, and the rushing attack, in particular, never really got on track in 2024.

A talent deficit is not a major issue in Duval County even if, overall, the whole has seemingly been less than the sum of the parts here for some time.

Salary cap

Barring any significant roster adjustments – Kirk has occasionally been involved in trade rumors, for example – the Jags should have about $35 million available, which puts them in the middle of the pack league-wide.

2025 NFL draft

Not only does Jacksonville have a top-five pick – No. 5 to be exact – that can be earmarked for the best available player, it has 10 selections overall, which should allow for great flexibility to maneuver around the board if not an opportunity to simply bring in more young talent.

Outlook

This team is only two years removed from winning the AFC South and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs. It nearly won the division again in 2023 despite a rash of injuries. There’s plenty to like here, from the players to the local golf courses.

Yet one intriguing element is the ongoing employment of GM Trent Baalke, who is about to work with his fifth different head coach (interim included) since he joined the front office in 2020. Pederson’s successor will have to take that for what it’s worth, but it’s hard to ignore the power dynamic.

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4. New York Jets

Quarterback situation

So much to unpack here … or pack.

Coming off a hugely disappointing year, Aaron Rodgers has been less than forthcoming about his future plans but is under contract for 2025 (and so is backup Tyrod Taylor). Talented former Florida State star Jordan Travis effectively took a medical redshirt during his rookie year as he continues to work his way back from the grisly ankle injury that ended his Seminoles career late in the 2023 season.

Could be a lot of moving parts here … and there could just as easily be none.

Roster

Recently fired GM Joe Douglas brought plenty of talent into this building – and plenty of players favored by Rodgers – but it never got the Jets close to breaking the league’s longest playoff drought, which now stands at 14 seasons. The high point of Douglas’ tenure was a 2022 draft class that includes CB Sauce Gardner, WR…

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