Ranking NFL’s six* open head coaching jobs after Raiders dump Antonio Pierce

Though “Black Monday” has evolved into something that’s more of a battleship gray – Doug Pederson, formerly of the Jaguars, was the only NFL head coach fired the day after the 2024 regular season concluded – there are nevertheless (currently) a half-dozen vacancies across a league that remains in constant flux but has simply moved away from 24 hours of mass professional carnage.

Alternately, the diminution of Black Monday also underscores the possibility – perhaps likelihood – that more coaching changes are coming down the pike. Some owners simply take more time before rendering a decision – the Raiders’ Mark Davis dismissed Antonio Pierce on Tuesday – while surprise retirements, resignations and the playoffs can also suddenly alter the landscape. There’s also a unique circumstance this year as Mike McCarthy’s contract is set to expire but he can’t negotiate with other teams until Jan. 14, meaning he and the Dallas Cowboys will either come to a mutual agreement to remain professionally hitched or will opt for a parting of the ways.

So while the list could certainly grow beyond six* openings, let’s assess the current ones from most attractive to least:

1. New England Patriots

Quarterback situation

Tom Brady’s unparalleled achievements cast a very wide shadow here. Yet it does appear that Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick in last year’s draft, has a very good chance to be a very good long-term answer. Given its apparent weaknesses, the organization was probably wise to hold Maye back in the early stages of the 2024 campaign. However he frequently did a nice job making lemonade out of lemons, especially with his legs – Maye’s 7.8 yards per attempt were the highest in the league among players with at least 50 rushes. His arm strength and moxie were also quite apparent. He’ll obviously need more help around him in 2025 – and the team is well equipped to provide it – but the Pats were noticeably more competitive when Maye was on the field than they were under journeyman Jacoby Brissett.

Rookie Joe Milton’s scintillating performance in Week 18 illustrated why New England carried the highly talented – but raw – sixth-round rookie on the active roster all season rather than expose him on the practice squad. Even if his long-term future isn’t in Foxborough, he might be a valuable commodity in the future if he continues to progress. Adding a veteran backup will probably be necessary if Brissett doesn’t re-sign in the offseason.

Roster

It’s not pretty. Bill Belichick, who had a large hand in constructing this team, was famous for getting the most out of individual players and tailoring game plans to their specific strengths. His very brief replacement, Jerod Mayo, couldn’t do that in 2024, though – in fairness – neither did Belichick in 2023.

CBs Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones seem to be long-term building blocks along with DE Keion White. But one couldn’t blame the Patriots if they invested all of their cap and draft resources in 2025 on the offensive side of the ball in a bid to support Maye. Ja’Lynn Polk was a notable disappointment in 2024, but he isn’t the first wideout to struggle mightily as a rookie.

Salary cap

New England is projected to have nearly $128 million in available cap space this year, per OverTheCap, the most in the league. It has to be a tempting component of the job for the next coach given the opportunity to target the types of players he might want – perhaps a rising star like Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins, who doesn’t have a contract for 2025.

Executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf was mainly responsible for managing the roster in 2024. But owner Robert Kraft has not yet divulged what Wolf’s role will be moving forward, though he is expected to remain with the organization.

2025 NFL draft

Sunday’s victory over the Bills was hardly meaningless – it cost the Patriots this year’s No. 1 pick and dropped them to fourth in Round 1. And while falling three spots might not seem like an especially big deal for a team that won’t be in the market for a young quarterback, significant capital was likely lost in a year where the QB crop appears thin and trading that top selection might have brought a nice return. New England does own an extra third-rounder.

Outlook

The presumption is that Kraft will pursue Mike Vrabel, who’s already a proven NFL head coach – unlike Mayo – and also a Patriots legend who earned three rings as a linebacker in the early years of the Belichick-Brady dynasty and was a member of the legendary 18-1 team in 2007. But despite the quick pivots from Belichick to Mayo to whomever is next – and Kraft has rightly taken blame for the quick hook on Mayo, who barely had a chance to prove himself – this is a first-class organization that knows what winning looks like and generally spares no expense or effort in pursuit of that goal. Kraft will surely take a painstaking approach to getting the next hire right, ensuring the org chart flows logically while passing the torch to someone who will have an enviable number of tools for what the fan base – and owner – will expect to be a resumption of Super Bowl aspirations.

2. Chicago Bears

Quarterback situation

Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 draft and widely regarded as a generational prospect, is supposed to be this franchise’s savior. It didn’t go that way during his highly uneven rookie season, when he too often reverted to some of his bad college habits by consistently trying to force the issue on lost plays while absorbing a league-worst 68 sacks. Yet Williams also flashed the brilliance that landed him in this position and, while he made plenty of mistakes in terms of game management, he also set a rookie record by throwing 353 consecutive passes without an interception. Bottom line, his presence and potential will be quite an enticement for prospective coaches – Ben Johnson? – eyeing this job.

There’s also plenty to like about 24-year-old backup Tyson Bagent, but it would probably behoove the organization to bring in a veteran to tutor Williams and perhaps serve as a trusted sounding board for both youngsters.

Roster

There are plenty of good players here, notably WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, who was picked eight spots after Williams, RB D’Andre Swift and TE Cole Kmet – though their collective output was certainly depressed by the offense’s dysfunction in 2024. The O-line has room to improve, but it shouldn’t be inordinately blamed for Williams’ outlandish sack total, the rookie causing quite a bit of self-sabotage.

The defense regressed but appears set in key spots with CB Jaylon Johnson, LB Tremaine Edmunds and pass rusher Montez Sweat. All of them need to play better in 2025, and the front seven seems to need reinforcements.

WR Keenan Allen and G Teven Jenkins are the most notable free agents.

Salary cap

The team is projected to have more than $80 million to spend in free agency, which is presently among the five highest bankrolls in the league. Talent acquisition hasn’t been an issue for GM Ryan Poles, though it obviously needs to coalesce better under the next coaching staff.

2025 NFL draft

Poles’ trade of the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft has one more dividend to pay as the Bears own Carolina’s second-rounder this year. That should mean Chicago picks four times among the top 72 selections, including 10th overall – and there’s definitely more work to do in order to build up the supporting cast around Williams.

Outlook

The prospect of working with Williams on a rookie contract – and with so many other quality pieces in place – should make this a highly desirable job. However a rabid fan base looking for something more than 1985 highlights and memories will expect near-instant results – which won’t be easy in the NFC North, which just sent its three other members into the postseason field. And while the roster is solid, whoever succeeds Matt Eberflus must also ensure there’s philosophical alignment with team president Kevin Warren and Poles given the good work that was done in 2024 was undermined by a lack of appropriate coaching infrastructure to properly develop a rookie quarterback.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback situation

Unlike numerous teams throughout the NFL, they have their guy in Trevor Lawrence – that certainty cemented by the five-year, $275 million extension he signed in June, tied for the second-largest contract in league history while linking him to the club through the 2030 season.

But there’s a flip side to that stability given Lawrence has yet to live up to his billing as the top pick of the 2021 draft, when he was hyped as a prospect bound to make an impact on par with John Elway or Peyton Manning. Not only has that not happened – Lawrence has been a Pro Bowler one time and taken the Jags to the playoffs once – but injuries have undercut his performance the past two seasons.

After his rookie year was squandered by Urban Meyer, Lawrence generally played better under Pederson. But the next coach must certainly find a way to truly unlock his potential.

The backup situation will need to addressed anew with Mac Jones headed for free agency.

Roster

Regardless of how one assesses Lawrence, there’s a nice nucleus here. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was a breakout star on a receiver corps that already boasted Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram. The defense is stocked with a first-rate pass rusher in Josh Hines-Allen and promising youngsters like Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and Tyson Campbell. Work needs to be done in the trenches, and the rushing attack in particular never really got on track in 2024.

A talent deficit is not a major issue in Duval County, even if, overall, the whole has seemingly been less than the sum of the parts here for some time.

Salary cap

Barring any significant roster adjustments – Kirk has occasionally been involved in trade rumors, for example – the Jags should have about $35 million available in March, which puts them in the middle of the pack league-wide.

2025 NFL draft

Not only does Jacksonville have a top-five pick – No. 5 to be exact – that can be earmarked for the best available player, it has 10 selections overall, which should allow for great flexibility to maneuver around the board if not an opportunity to simply bring in more young talent.

Outlook

This team is only two years removed from winning the AFC South and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs. It nearly won the division again in 2023 despite a rash of injuries. There’s plenty to like here, from the players to the local golf courses.

Yet one intriguing element is the ongoing employment of GM Trent Baalke, who is about to work with his fifth different head coach (interim included) since he joined the front office in 2020. Pederson’s successor will have to take…

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