Justin Trudeau ‘ready to resign’ as early as today over Trump tariff row – latest

With a vote of no confidence looming – if Justin Trudeau doesn’t himself resign – would the Canadian prime minister be able to avoid being ousted?

Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party which previously supported Mr Trudeau’s Liberal minority government, said in December he would table a formal no-confidence motion in the government.

But if Mr Trudeau wanted to avoid losing his job, he could in theory prorogue parliament. This would see the current parliamentary session formally end and give him some breathing space.

The return of the House would therefore be delayed by several weeks, and the government would have time to bring forward a new plan for Canada.

While it would delay a no-confidence motion, it may only serve to further anger a disgruntled set of Liberal legislators.

After US president-elect Donald Trump announced he would impose a 25 per cent tariff regime on Canada, Justin Trudeau said this would make life much more expensive for Americas.

Here’s what he said in early December, speaking at an event held by the Halifax Chamber of Commerce:

“Trump got elected on a commitment to make life better and more affordable for Americans, and I think people south of the border are beginning to wake up to the real reality that tariffs on everything from Canada would make life a lot more expensive.

“Let’s not kid ourselves in any way, shape or form, 25% tariffs on everything going to the United States would be devastating for the Canadian economy.

“It would also, however, mean real hardship for Americans as well. Americans import 65% of their crude oil from Canada, significant amounts of electricity. Just about all the natural gas exported from Canada goes to the United States. They rely on us for steel and aluminum. They rely on us for a range of agriculture imports. All of those things would get more expensive.”

Mr Trump responded by describing Canada as a state and Mr Trudeau as its governor.

Oct ‘13: Mr Trudeau, son of former Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau, becomes leader of Liberal party when it was at an all-time low.

Oct ‘15: With a message of hope, the Liberals win a majority in the federal election, defeating the Conservatives.

Dec ‘17: Mr Trudeau becomes first PM to be found guilty of conflict of interest by ethics commissioner after accepting a holiday, flights and gifts from the Aga Khan.

Feb ‘19: Jody Wilson-Raybould, former justice minister, accuses government officials of pressuring her to help construction company SNC-Lavalin avoid a corruption trial. In August, the ethics commissioner rules Mr Trudeau and his officials breached ethics rules.

Sept ‘19: Photos emerge of Mr Trudeau wearing blackface when he was younger, shortly before the 2019 election starts. Mr Trudeau apologises for his “blind spot”.

Oct ‘19: Liberals reduced to minority in House of Commons in election.

Sept ‘21: Trudeau triggers national vote in hope the electorate would reward his government’s pandemic handling – but fails to win a majority in the house.

July ‘23: Polls show Liberals steadily losing popularity amid growing signs of voter fatigue. The gap suddenly widens in summer and a 2025 defeat seems likely.

June ‘24: Defeat for Liberals in a special election, in one of its safest seats in Toronto.

Sept ‘24: Former key ally New Democratic Party (NDP) withdraws automatic support, forcing Mr Trudeau to attempt to forge new alliances.

Nov ‘24: Trump pledges 25 per cent tariff on all products imported to US from Canada, a threat to an export-dependent economy.

Dec ‘24: Finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigns over handling of Trump tariffs and Mr Trudea’s support continues to collapse. NDP promises no confidence motion in the new year.

Justin Trudeau’s latest X post gives no indication of a willingness to step down soon, despite reports that he is likely to announce his resignation this week.

“A big win from 2024: Nearly a million Canadian families saw their child care fees come down. Parents saved thousands of dollars, thanks to our national child care program,” Mr Trudeau wrote on Sunday.

“In 2025, we’re going to keep bringing those costs down. Let’s go.”

Two Canadian Cabinet ministers met with President-elect Donald Trump‘s nominee for commerce secretary at Mar-a-Lago on Friday as Canada tries to avoid sweeping tariffs when Trump takes office.

Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian products if Canada does not stem what he calls a flow of migrants and fentanyl into the United States — even though far fewer of each cross into the U.S. from Canada than from Mexico, which Trump has also threatened.

“Minister LeBlanc and Minister Joly had a positive, productive meeting at Mar-a-Lago with Howard Lutnick and Doug Burgum, as a follow-up to the dinner between the Prime Minister and President Trump last month,” said Jean-Sébastien Comeau, a spokesman for LeBlanc.

With an election looming in October at the latest, the polls aren’t positive reading for Justin Trudeau’s governing Liberals.

A poll average tracker carried out by Canada’s CBC shows the Liberals trailing by more than 23 per cent, with support for his party having taken another hit after finance minister Chrystia Freedland’s resignation in December.

Mr Trudeau’s party is currently on 20.9 per cent in the tracker, which would be a 12.2 per cent drop from its voteshare in the 2021 election.

The left-leaning New Democrat party, led by Jagmeet Singh, is under two points behind the Liberals in the tracker.

The tracker, created by Canadian political analyst Éric Grenier of TheWrit.ca, finds there is a 99 per cent probability of the Conservatives winning a majority, and a less than 1 per cent chance of the Liberals winning the most seats.

Signs are mounting that members of the Liberal Party, which Trudeau has led since 2013, are losing confidence in the prime minister.

In mid-December, Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister and head of finance, unexpectedly resigned citing disagreements over the handling of Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariffs on the country – an issue that could damage the economy.

Already, Trudeau was facing low approval ratings due to the country’s cost of living crisis.

But since then, dozens of Liberal MPs have called on Trudeau to resign. Less than two weeks ago, a majority of Liberal MPs in the province of Ontario agreed, on a call, that Trudeau should step down, according to CBC.

Read Ariana Baio’s report from five days ago:

If Justin Trudeau doesn’t resign, he could still be forced out as Canadian prime minister.

This would have to be done by the Canadian parliament – as there is no formal mechanism in the Liberal party to remove Mr Trudeau if he wanted to stay.

Canadian governments must retain the confidence of the House of Commons – any vote on budgets or spending which are lost by the government are considered a vote of no-confidence. The government falls, with an election typically taking place immediately.

The House of Commons will not return until January 27 this year, and the government can use procedural manoeuvres to avoid being brought down on spending measures.

But they will need to allocate a few days to opposition parties to bring forward motions on any matter, including no-confidence.

Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party which has helped prop up Mr Trudeau’s Liberal minority government, indicated in December that he would present a formal no-confidence motion in when the House of Commons returns.

If the current government allocated opposition days at the end of this parliamentary session, the last 10 days of March are the most likely time that Trudeau would be brought down, triggering an election in May.

When Justin Trudeau became the Canadian prime minister in 2015, people were still using that thing called Facebook. I can remember well the frothing posts by female friends, none of whom could contain their excitement at the election of this hottie PM. Furthermore, they gushed at the notion that what made him hotter still was not only that he was young and handsome, he was a lovely liberal dude too, which made him even more super-duper guy.

(If my male friends had written about an equally attractive female prime minister in such a way, they might well have been cancelled, but let’s park that.) As far as my friends were concerned – and to be fair, Trudeau had plenty of male fanboys – here was the perfect Generation X politician, and all would surely be well in his good hands.

It certainly doesn’t look like that any more because, at the time of writing, it looks like Trudeau is on his way out.

Read the full piece from Guy Walters in December: